This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card in Vegas. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a great deal of cash from this week and I can’t wait to chase those huge prizes. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $50k belongs to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier just tournament for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 admissions that match. I won my first seat into it last week and will try to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at that $50k prize, and then I will probably have a few shots in the Qualifier. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic amount of play into money games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Jon Jones — $9,600
Jones is a lock for the cash game lineup this week in his -800 betting line. I will take that free square foot and proceed. He must dominate this fight and he can complete it on the feet or the floor. I expect him to score more than 100-points and I am totally fine with paying $9.6k for that. When I am making lineups, I would like to try and have at least 10x from every fighter. With Jones being 9.6k, I need at least 96 points . That is the way I look at it. If this was a 3-round fight and I didn’t think Jones would get a finish then perhaps he only dents 80-85 DK points in a win, and at $9.6k I wouldn’t want that. Nonetheless, this is a possible 5-round fight, and that I really do expect Jones to control, so that price tag is fine with me. For GPPs, I think you can get away from Jon Jones since he’ll be very highly possessed. If he is 50% owned by the field and he only scores 85-90 DK points, then will pretty much kill off half the area since that would not be enough points to place him on that $50k lineup.
GPP drama of this week — Ben Askren — $9,000
If Ben Askren wins this fight it will be from his wrestling. He is among the best wrestlers in MMA history and today he is finally getting a chance in the UFC after dominating every organization he has been in. He will not wish to strike for long against Robbie Lawler, therefore I expect him to take for takedowns straight away and string wrestle till he gets them. Once he receives top control there isn’t going to be a lot Robbie can perform on the floor and he must take a beating so long as it is on the mat. On DraftKings, every takedown is 5 points compared to 0.5 points to get a substantial strike. A guy like Askren can go out there and receive 10 takedowns in 15-minutes and that’s what makes him a great play if he can think of the victory.
Play of this week — Diego Sanchez — $7,100
This really isn’t the Diego Sanchez of old, but I think he still has what it takes to conquer Mickey Gall. On the toes, the quantity alone from Sanchez should win it for him there so long as he doesn’t get pumped out. The chin of Diego is exactly what I worry about most these days, but Gall isn’t much of a striker and that I don’t see him becoming knockout. In addition, I don’t understand that Gall can get takedowns, and that I believe Sanchez are the likely guy to be on top if the struggle hits the floor. There is A submission Gall’s best chance at a win here and Sanchez has never been filed. We must have underdogs in our DK lineups and also at $7.1k Diego allows us to cover up for all those men like Jon Jones or even Ben Askren. If he could grind a decision win here I presume he can get 10x that salary and when we can find a win from him at that inexpensive salary, then I think we will be in line for this $50k win if we hit our additional 5 spots.
Fade of this week — Anthony Smith ($6,600)
I might end up using every fighter since I am making so many lineups this week, but Anthony Smith is the man I want the least of. I try to get a favorite for you guys as my fade of the week but I don’t believe there are any need to fade favorites this week. Rather, I’m going with the 1 fighter I don’t think stands a chance. I believe that a fluke KO is the only path to success for Smith and he actually doesn’t possess the 1 punch/kick power that it might take to pull that off. I’d be shocked when Smith pulled off the upset this week and when I had been making 20 or less lineups, he’d be a simple fade.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link as well. I am 58-37 for +177.62u (+$17,762) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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